Progress and challenges in consolidating the management of Amazonian protected areas and indigenous territories

Effective management refers to the ability of a protected area or indigenous territory to meet its objectives, particularly as they relate to the protection of biodiversity and forest cover. Effective management is achieved through a process of consolidation, which among other things requires legally protecting sites, integrating sites into land‐use planning, developing and implementing management and resource‐use plans, and securing long‐term funding to pay for recurrent costs. Effectively managing all protected areas and indigenous territories in the Amazon may be needed to avoid a deforestation tipping point beyond which regional climatic feedbacks and global climate change interact to catalyze irreversible drying and savannization of large areas. At present, protected areas and indigenous territories cover 45.5% (3.55 million km²) of the Amazon, most of the 60–70% forest cover required to maintain hydrologic and climatic function. Three independent evaluations of a long‐term large‐scale philanthropic initiative in the Amazon yielded insights into the challenges and advances toward achieving effective management of protected areas and indigenous territories. Over the life of the initiative, management of sites has improved considerably, particularly with respect to management planning and capacity building, but few sites are effectively managed and many lack sufficient long‐term financing, adequate governance, support of nongovernmental organizations, and the means to withstand economic pressures. The time and money required to complete consolidation is still poorly understood, but it is clear that philanthropic funding is critical so long as essential funding needs are not met by governments and other sources, which could be on the order of decades. Despite challenges, it is encouraging that legal protection has expanded greatly and management of sites is improving steadily. Management of protected areas in other developing countries could be informed by improvements that have occurred in Amazonian countries.     

Efficacy-based and normative interventions for facilitating the diffusion of conservation behavior through social networks

Research suggests that encouraging motivated residents to reach out to others in their social network is an effective strategy for increasing the scale and speed of conservation action adoption. However, little is known about how to effectively encourage large numbers of residents to reach out to others about conservation causes. We examined the influence of normative and efficacy-based messaging at motivating residents to engage in and to encourage others to participate in native plant gardening in their community. To do so, we conducted a field experiment with messages on mailings and tracked native plant vouchers used. Efficacy messages tended to be more effective than normative messages at increasing residents’ willingness to reach out to others to encourage conservation action, as indicated by a several percentage point increase in native plant voucher use by residents’ friends and neighbors. Messages sometimes had different impacts on residents based on past behaviors and perceptions related to native plant gardening. Among these subgroups, efficacy and combined efficacy and norm messages most effectively encouraged individual and collective actions, as indicated by increased voucher usage. Our findings suggest that interventions that build residents’ efficacy for engaging in a conservation behavior and for reaching out to others may be a promising path forward for outreach. However, given our results were significant at a false discovery rate cutoff of 0.25 but not 0.05, more experimental trials are needed to determine the robustness of these trends.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Progress in Restoration of the Mauritius Kestrel

In the 1970s, the Mauritius Kestrel ( Falco punctatus ) was the most endangered bird of prey in the world, at one time with only two known pairs surviving in the remnant native forest of the Black River Gorges (ca. 4,000 ha). At the end of the 1991–1992 breeding season, a minimum of 30 nesting pairs and more than 170 individuals were distributed in four separate forested areas, thanks mainly to manipulation of the reproductive potential of the wild pairs, to captive propagation, and to reintroduction (restocking). Since 1984, 139 young have been reared from 618 eggs laid by captive kestrels, and 147 from 265 wild eggs incubated and hatched in the laboratory; 235 young kestrels have been released on Mauritius by hacking and fostering. Adjustments in feeding and nesting habits of kestrels hacked and released outside the Black River Gorges in areas dominated by exotic vegetation and agriculture have allowed these kestrels to survive and reproduce in an array of previously unused habitats. Now that the kestrels have been released from dependence on the remnant and dying native forest, a viable population of more than 100 nesting pairs should be achievable in a few more years.     

In situ assessment of modification of sediment properties by burrowing invertebrates

Benthic organisms can significantly alter the physical properties of marine sediments, but it has hitherto been difficult to assess and quantify the effects of bioturbation. In situ geophysical techniques offer new methods for measuring these effects: measurement of acoustic shear-wave velocity and electrical resistivity allows nondestructive assessment of the properties of the grain framework and pore-fluid matrix, respectively, of the seabed sediment. The influence of burrowing invertebrates on the structural properties of sandy sediments at intertidal locations on the coast of Wales (UK) was investigated during the periol 1986–1987 using these techniques. Three species (Arenicola marina, Corophium arenarium and Lanice conchilega) were selected on the basis of their contrasting styles of burrow construction. All three species produced measurable and significant, although different, changes in bed properties. They modified shear-wave propagation through the bed by changing bed rigidity: while A. marina and C. arenarium decreased rigidity by creating open burrows, L. conchilega increased rigidity by building shell-lined tubes. All produced a decrease in electrical resistivity by altering porosity and/or tortuosity, which implies an increase in permeability; these changes were attributable not only to the presence of the burrows but also to modification of the between-burrow sediment texture and bed properties.     

The effects of mobile speed camera introduction on road traffic crashes and casualties in a rural county of England

PROBLEM: This study assesses the impact of crash and casualty numbers in correspondence to the introduction of mobile speed cameras in the rural county of Norfolk, England. METHOD: Road traffic accident casualty and crash data were collected for two years before the introduction of cameras and two years subsequently. The casualties and crashes occurring at 29 camera sites were identified and separated from those occurring in the rest of the county. Trends in crashes and casualties, and their severity, were examined graphically and comparisons were made between before and after periods. The regression to the mean effect at individual sites was estimated. RESULTS: After the introduction of cameras, overall crashes declined by 1% and crashes involving fatalities or serious injuries declined by 9% on the roads without cameras. At the camera sites, crashes decreased by 19% and fatal and serious crashes by 44%. The reduction in total crashes was significantly greater than that expected from the effect of regression to the mean in 12 out of 20 sites tested. SUMMARY: The introduction of cameras appears to have resulted in real and measurable reductions in crash risk in this rural county. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our results suggest the deployment of mobile speed cameras is an effective tool for organizations wishing to reduce road traffic casualties in areas where high crash rates have been associated with excessive vehicle speeds.     

State estimation in wastewater engineering: Application to an anaerobic process

The use of an extended Kalman filter for state estimation in biological wastewater treatment processes is discussed. The application of the technique requires an adequate mechanistic dynamic model and the identification and modelling of the major sources of stochastic disturbances in the process. The filter allows the on-line tracking of process variables which are not directly measurable. The use of an extended Kalman filter is illustrated through a simulated application to a high rate anaerobic wastewater treatment process.     

Investigation of the Influence of Seagrass on Fisheries Catch Level Using Isotonic Regression

The relationship between seagrass area and the commercial catch of some economically important South Australian fish species is not known in any quantitative sense. However, there is evidence in the literature to suggest that seagrass decline will detrimentally impact on species abundance and composition, and consequently that the presence or absence of seagrass will compromise the commercial and recreational fishery. In this paper we describe the construction of models based on order restricted (isotonic) regression and discuss the role of seagrass area, in terms of its influence on the level of commercial catch through modifying the effect of fishing 'effort'.     

Linking Land Cover and Water Quality in New York City’S Water Supply Watersheds

The Catskill/Delaware reservoirs supply 90% of New York City’s drinking water. The City has implemented a series of watershed protection measures, including land acquisition, aimed at preserving water quality in the Catskill/Delaware watersheds. The objective of this study was to examine how relationships between landscape and surface water measurements change between years. Thirty-two drainage areas delineated from surface water sample points (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations) were used in step-wise regression analyses to test landscape and surface-water quality relationships. Two measurements of land use, percent agriculture and percent urban development, were positively related to water quality and consistently present in all regression models. Together these two land uses explained 25 to 75% of the regression model variation. However, the contribution of agriculture to water quality condition showed a decreasing trend with time as overall agricultural land cover decreased. Results from this study demonstrate that relationships between land cover and surface water concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria counts over a large area can be evaluated using a relatively simple geographic information system method. Land managers may find this method useful for targeting resources in relation to a particular water quality concern, focusing best management efforts, and maximizing benefits to water quality with minimal costs.The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described here. It has been subjected to Agency’s administrative review and approved for publication as an EPA document.